I've heard so much about how prediction markets are the guiding light in this dark world. But when put head to head against polls or Nate Silver's FLIPR model, they are really a wash. Especially looking at flipped or close-by-polls races, there is no alpha compared to a traditional poll-based model. Was this obvious to everyone else too? Can we treat them like the entertainment they are and tax them for the terrible ads?
Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50401451
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