arXiv:2611.06173v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Deploying an explainable intrusion detection model from a validated laboratory setting into a forensic workflow requires guarantees that benchmarks do not test: that the certified model is the exact artifact applied to a case, that heterogeneous evidence can be classified reliably, and that every step is verifiable. We present MODEXRE, a forensic pipeline that extends a previously validated synthetic-data-trained XGBoost classifier with SHAP explainability (arXiv:2607.00763) into a dual-mode architecture: a Laboratory mode, where models are trained and certified on public and synthetic data, and a Formal mode, where a frozen, hash-verified model performs inference on case evidence under a SHA-256 hash-chained chain of custody. Suricata alerts, CEF firewall logs and packet captures are normalized through OCSF. Four design decisions, each triggered by an observed failure, shaped the architecture: a timestamp leak that inflated Kitsune performance (F1-macro 0.984, 0.662 after correction); a feature-coverage gap that made the 78-feature reference model misclassify a real SSH alert; causal temporal flow aggregation, which raised Kitsune multiclass F1-macro from 0.394 to 0.932; and a certification defect, exposed only by a real packet capture, whereby the pipeline had always trained a binary classifier. After correction, the same capture went from 100% of events flagged as malicious to 87% classified as Normal, with the scanning host identified as Reconnaissance. The default four-class certified model reaches F1-macro = 0.9538 on CICIDS2017-derived evidence; the recertified 18-category model reaches 0.6214, reflecting the real multiclass task. Chain-of-custody verification, model integrity hashing and per-prediction SHAP explanations are reported as measured outcomes.