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Online Causal Configuration for Networked Systems via Doubly Robust Steady-State Learning
arXiv stat.ML0 views
arXiv:2611.09665v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Measurement exploration reveals how interacting local controllers behave but can alter the steady-state regime a network operator seeks to optimize. Exploratory rewards may therefore fail to identify a configuration's no-exploration value: under full exploration, identical logged distributions can conceal different target values. Identification requires accounting for both action-law mismatch and shifts in the steady-state context distribution. We introduce CAUSAL-UCB, which selects configurations using optimistic bounds on target causal values. Its interference-aware clipped doubly robust evaluator produces predecision certificates separating statistical variation from calibrated identification, transport, and temporal-dependence errors. For any finite horizon and predetermined schedule of measurement-exploration rates $\{\eta_t\}$, we prove lower bounds of $\Omega((1+\sum_t\eta_t)^{-1/2})$ on minimax inference error and $\Omega(\sum_t\eta_t)$ on measurement-induced deployment loss in a stationary, potentially slow-mixing family. We bound regret under valid certificates and selected-information growth, and establish an anytime finite-sample certificate with a shared radius for estimation, selection, and reporting in a restricted known-local-interference model. In a high-mismatch benchmark with 24 paired seeds and 200 rounds, CAUSAL-UCB attains target regret of $1.732$ versus $6.326$ for certified IPS-UCB, with deployment gaps of $30.607$ and $23.217$, respectively. Independent-audit coverage tests and trace-driven semi-synthetic studies further assess certificate coverage and deployment trade-offs.
Source:https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.09665PreviousMarginal-Nonuniform Multiclass LearningNextQuasipolynomial-Time Planning for Decodable POMDPs
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