AI & ML
Goal-Oriented Sequential Bayesian Experimental Design for Causal Learning
arXiv stat.ML0 views
arXiv:2507.07359v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We present GO-CBED, a goal-oriented Bayesian framework for sequential causal experimental design. Unlike conventional approaches that select interventions aimed at inferring the full causal model, GO-CBED directly maximizes the expected information gain (EIG) on user-specified causal quantities of interest, enabling more targeted and efficient experimentation. The framework is both non-myopic, optimizing over entire intervention sequences, and goal-oriented, targeting only model aspects relevant to the causal query. To address the intractability of exact EIG computation, we introduce a variational lower bound estimator, optimized jointly through a transformer-based policy network and normalizing flow-based variational posteriors. The resulting policy enables real-time decision-making via an amortized network. We demonstrate that GO-CBED consistently outperforms existing baselines across various causal reasoning and discovery tasks-including synthetic structural causal models and semi-synthetic gene regulatory networks-particularly in settings with limited experimental budgets and complex causal mechanisms. Our results highlight the benefits of aligning experimental design objectives with specific research goals and of forward-looking sequential planning.
Source:https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.07359PreviousWhen the Agent Learns Too: Learning to Incentivize with Unobserved RewardsNextESS-Flow: Training-free guidance as Bayesian inference in source space
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